Op-Ed from NY Times

Op-Ed Contributor
Can Africa Trade Its Way to Peace?

By HERMAN J. COHEN
Published: December 15, 2008

THE conflict in eastern Congo over the past 12 years has been as much
a surrogate war between Congo and neighboring Rwanda as an internal
ethnic insurgency, as a United Nations report underscored last week.
The only way to end a war that has caused five million deaths and
forced millions to flee their homes in Congo's two eastern provinces
is to address the conflict's international dimensions. The role of
Rwanda - which borders the provinces and which denied the accusations
in the United Nations report over the weekend - is of prime
importance.

The international community has worked hard to resolve the conflicts
among the various parties: the sovereign states of Rwanda and Congo as
well as the assorted militias and private armies that are sponsored by
these two governments and by opportunistic local warlords. But despite
the deployment of 17,000 United Nations peacekeepers, and many efforts
at mediation with constructive American support, the situation appears
intractable.

The failure of international diplomacy is related to the economic
roots of the problem, which began with the 1994 genocide in Rwanda.
Until the economic conundrum is addressed, there is little prospect
for a solution.

The genocidal war between the majority Hutu and the minority Tutsi in
Rwanda spilled into Congo, and the eastern part of that vast country
has been unstable ever since. When Tutsi rebel forces took power in
Rwanda in June 1994, more than a million Hutu fled to Congo, where
they settled into refugee camps on the Rwandan border.

After two years of cross-border raids from the refugee camps by exiled
Hutu soldiers who had participated in the genocide, the Rwandan Army
attacked and destroyed the camps, with the quiet but unambiguous
approval of the United States in the absence of another solution to
the violence. Most of the Hutu refugees returned to Rwanda, but about
100,000 of them, along with the exiled Hutu soldiers, moved westward
as a disciplined group into Congo's interior.

The Rwandan Army pursued the escaping Hutu and caught up with them
near the city of Kisangani at the headwaters of the Congo River. The
refugees were massacred, but the former Hutu soldiers escaped to
neighboring countries.

The move against the refugee camps was the first step in a
well-planned action by Rwanda in 1996 and 1997 to overwhelm the weak
Congolese Army and, with the help of the Congolese opposition,
overthrow the 30-year dictatorship of Mobutu Sese Seko. With
logistical support from Uganda and Angola, the military action
succeeded in less than three months. A new government in Congo was
installed under President Laurent Kabila, an exile handpicked by the
Rwandans.

And from 1996 to today, the Tutsi-led Rwandan government has been in
effective control of Congo's eastern provinces of North and South
Kivu. This control has been maintained through intermittent military
occupation and the presence of Congolese militias financed and trained
by the Rwandan Army.

During these 12 years of Rwandan control, the mineral-rich provinces
have been economically integrated into Rwanda. During this time,
Congo's governments have been preoccupied with internal and external
wars elsewhere, and have been unable to combat foreign control of the
eastern provinces, a thousand miles from the capital, Kinshasa.

But two years ago, Congo held multiparty elections that were judged to
be transparent and credible by international observers. For the first
time in a decade, there was hope for stability. President Joseph
Kabila (the son of Laurent Kabila, who was assassinated in 2001)
turned his attention to trying to gain control of the eastern
provinces.

Unfortunately, this has led to increased conflict and suffering. The
main source of the current violence is an insurgent force of ethnic
Congolese Tutsi commanded by Laurent Nkunda, a former general in the
Congolese Army. He claims to be fighting to defend the Tutsi community
from discrimination and from the former Rwandan Hutu fighters who have
returned from neighboring countries and now operate in the forested
hills of eastern Congo.

General Nkunda's military operations, however, are aimed mainly
against the Congolese Army's efforts to restore Congo's sovereignty
over its eastern provinces. His force is well armed and financed by
the Rwandan government. The armed Hutu presence in the provinces
provides the Rwandan government with a pretext to justify its
interference there.

Having controlled the Kivu provinces for 12 years, Rwanda will not
relinquish access to resources that constitute a significant
percentage of its gross national product. At the same time, Congo's
government is within its rights to take control of the resources there
for the benefit of the Congolese people. This economic conflict must
be taken into account.

This provides an opportunity for the incoming Obama administration.
Acts of war and military occupation aside, there is a natural economic
synergy between eastern Congo and the nations of East Africa,
including Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Uganda. The normal flow of
trade from eastern Congo is to Indian Ocean ports rather than the
Atlantic Ocean, which is more than a thousand miles away.

After his inauguration, Barack Obama should appoint a special
negotiator who would propose a framework for an economic common market
encompassing Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. This
agreement would allow the free movement of people and trade. It would
give Rwandan businesses continued access to Congolese minerals and
forests. The products made from those raw materials would continue to
be exported through Rwanda. The big change would be the payment of
royalties and taxes to the Congolese government. For most Rwandan
businesses, those payments would be offset by increased revenues.

In addition, the free movement of people would empty the refugee camps
and would allow the densely populated countries of Rwanda and Burundi
to supply needed labor to Congo and Tanzania.

If such a common market could be negotiated, Rwanda and Congo would no
longer need to finance and arm militias to wage war over the natural
resources in Congo's eastern provinces. Without government backing,
the fighting groups would either dissolve on their own or be
integrated into legitimate armed forces.

If undertaken with enough will and persistence, an American-led
mediation to create a common market in East Africa could end the war
and transform the region.

Herman J. Cohen was the assistant secretary of state for Africa from
1989 to 1993.